Donald Trump and Mujtaba Khamenei
Today the superpower floating on the waves of the ocean stands helpless. America, which claims to bend the world, is helpless in the Persian Gulf. Millions of efforts, incalculable military power, yet the narrow Veins of Hormuz remain closed. Iran’s invisible maze is not breaking and the global economy is being suffocated, but now Iran is going to write such a history in Hormuz, which will become a living document of America’s helplessness and will be narrated for centuries, because Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has drawn the final outline of winning the war with America, at the center of which lies the strategy to close Hormuz by 2029.
Heavy bombing, complete destruction and end of civilization, these are some of the words which US President Trump has been using with the intention of threatening Iran and giving clues about his future strategies, but now all that Trump is left with is ‘you will know’. This stance of Trump shows that his stance on Iran has started to loosen and the reason for this is Hormuz, which may be permanently locked by 2029. The reason for these speculations and apprehensions are the reports coming from Israel, which have worried everyone from America to the entire world.
Iran will not compromise with Trump?
Iranian officials have indicated that they are not in favor of pursuing any agreement with Trump. Iranian officials are considering the option of waiting for Trump’s term to end. Trump’s term will end by 2029, till then Iran can only remain in a state of waiting. If this happens, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed like this till 2029. Actually, Iran believes that the situation is in its favor and instead of making a deal with Trump, it can defeat him. Iran has now decided that it will either have to accept Trump’s terms and make a compromise or Hormuz will remain closed during his entire tenure.
On the other hand, to cover up Iran’s issue, Trump is continuously claiming that Hormuz is open and Iranian mines have been removed. Now, even though Trump is claiming that Hormuz is under his control and it is open, but maritime traffic data shows that the movement of ships in Hormuz is at the lowest level. According to the report of maritime traffic firm KPLER, a total of 42 ships have passed through Hormuz in the last 5 days, whereas before the war, 130 to 140 ships used to pass through Hormuz, which included oil tanks, commercial ships and other small and big ships.
Trump is considering 3 options against Iran
Data shows that there is a big difference between Trump’s words and reality, but the biggest question here is on Iran’s stance. After all, on what basis is he working on the strategy to continue the tension with Trump till 2029? Actually, it is claimed that Donald Trump is considering 3 options against Iran, but Mujtaba has the answer to every option of Trump. Trump’s first option is to launch major attacks, but Trump cannot continue this for long, because Iran will respond by attacking Arab countries, for which America lacks adequate interceptors.
Trump has another option – economic pressure, which he can increase further, but there is very little hope that it will be able to break Iran, because Iran has been facing economic pressure for years, but America has not been able to break it. At the same time, the third option is to maintain the status quo i.e. let it continue as it is, but under these circumstances Hormuz will never open, because Iran will have indirect control over it and Trump will be forced to accept Iranian conditions. This is the reason why Iran is ready to continue tension with Trump till 2029, which can close Hormuz for the entire tenure of Trump.
Iran has cut off all Trump’s options
It is clear from this that Iran has the solution to every option of Trump, due to which the American President seems helpless. To save his and America’s reputation, he is under pressure to open Hormuz. In such a situation, it is believed that the American President is considering leaving a new war, but this may prove to be a new mistake of Trump. NBC News report claims that American military officials have told Trump that any operation to control Hormuz would be very long, expensive and bloody, which could put America and Arab countries in great trouble. The oil crisis in the world may become bigger.
This is how the oil crisis will end
Now, to end the oil crisis, America is working on expanding alternative routes to Hormuz before the war. Work is already underway on new oil routes in UAE and Saudi. Now a similar alternative route is being prepared for Iraqi oil, which passes through Syria and Turkey. Iraq is preparing to build 2 new oil pipelines. The first pipeline will start from Basra in Iraq and will reach the Mediterranean Sea via Turkey. This pipeline will reach Haditha before Basra and Haditha has the main pumping station of Iraq. From Haditha the pipeline will move north to the Baiji Refinery Complex in Salahuddin province.
Here it will be connected to the pipeline going from Kirkuk to Fishkhabur. The pipeline in Fishkhabur will connect to the Iraq-Turkey pipeline going to Ceyhan Port in Turkey. This pipeline will be spread over about 1200 to 1300 km. Its oil supply capacity is estimated to be 22.5 lakh barrels per day. To increase capacity, Iraq is also repairing the direct pipeline from Baiji to Fishkhabur, which has been lying closed for years.
Plan to prepare Haditha-Banias pipeline
Apart from this, Iraq is also going to create another alternative route for oil supply, for which there is a plan to prepare Haditha-Banias pipeline. This pipeline will start from Haditha in Iraq and will reach Baniyas port located on the coast of neighboring Syria. This coast is situated on the Mediterranean Sea. The length of this pipeline is 850 to 900 km and its oil supply capacity will be about 15 to 20 lakh barrels per day. After the completion of these two pipelines, Iraq’s dependence on Hormuz will be greatly reduced. It will be able to supply its oil directly from the Mediterranean via Turkey and Syria.
Iran one step ahead of America in military policy
Although Trump can continue the mini war to save his reputation, so that his claims regarding Hormuz are not questioned and the oil of Gulf countries continues to be supplied from Europe to Asia through alternative routes, but if a war breaks out, the alternative routes of oil supply will also be on Iran’s target. He can organize attacks on Saudi pipelines through Houthi. At the same time, Iraq’s oil pipelines can be blocked through Iraqi militia. Current circumstances indicate that Iran is one step ahead of America in military policy. He has a clue to every strategy of Trump. In such a situation, if Hormuz is not opened by 2029 then the world is going to be stuck in a big energy crisis.
